Grain Deal, Zelenskiy to Speak After US Rebuff

(Bloomberg) — Damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure from Russian missile attacks since the war’s start may exceed $100 billion, the country’s Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said.

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Wheat, corn and soybean oil losses extended after Ukraine’s infrastructure minister, Oleksandr Kubrakov, said a Black Sea grain-export deal would be prolonged by 120 days.

Two Russians and a Ukrainian were found guilty by a Dutch court of carrying out an attack on Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in 2014 that led to the deaths of all 298 people on board. And President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said officials will travel to the site of a missile blast in eastern Poland that put his country’s air defenses under the spotlight as Kyiv’s allies face growing pressure to deliver more anti-air weapons.

Key Developments

  • Grains Extend Losses as Ukraine Says Black Sea Deal to Continue

  • Zelenskiy Softens Stance on Rocket Origin After Biden Comment

  • Zelenskiy Says No Peace Until Ukraine Gets Crimea, Donbas Back

  • Polish Blast Puts Focus on Ukraine Need for Stronger Air Defense

  • Repair Crews Dodge Bullets, Splice Cable to Keep Ukraine Online

(See RSAN on the Bloomberg Terminal for the Russian Sanctions Dashboard.)

On the Ground

Russia has launched 148 missiles and 26 drones against Ukraine since Nov. 11, General Staff spokesman Oleksii Hromov said. Odesa was attacked with Kalibr missiles from the Black Sea by Russian ships, and all were downed by Ukrainian air defenses, Southern Command spokeswoman Nataliya Humeniuk said. The death toll from Russian shelling of Vilnyansk increased to seven people after strikes on Dnipro, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, the Ukrainian president’s deputy chief of staff said. Ukrainian forces downed 4 X-101 missiles, 5 Shahed drones and two guided aviation missiles, which were launched from the Russian Rostov region, Belarus and the Black Sea, Ukrainian Air Defense said on Telegram.

(All times CET)

Infrastructure Damage May Top $100 Billion, Minister Says (7:39 pm)

Damage to Ukraine’s key infrastructure from Russian missile attacks since the war’s start may exceed $100 billion, Finance Minister Marchenko said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Balance of Power With David Westin.”

The costs for restoration, including for damaged energy facilities, will come on top of the country’s needs in budget financing, according to Marchenko, who estimates that could be $3 billion a month next year, down from $5 billion currently.

UkrLandFarming Sees 2023 Crop Yields Falling 20-25% (5:21 pm)

Yields of crops being planted for harvest in 2023 are likely to fall 20-25% year-on-year as farmers face difficulty buying enough fertilizer, according to the chief operating officer of one of Ukraine’s largest farming companies. Many farmers are now avoiding purchases of Russian fertilizer because of the war, UkrLandFarming Plc’s Galyna Kovtok said in an interview.

Trio Found Guilty of Downing Flight MH17 Over Ukraine (3:35 pm)

Judges in the Hague ruled that Igor Girkin, Sergey Dubinskiy and Ukrainian national Leonid Kharchenko caused the July 17, 2014 attack, while a fourth defendant was acquitted. Even though the three convicted men were sentenced to life in prison, none of them is likely to face jail anytime soon.

The Dutch government has held Russia liable for the incident after a five-country investigation team concluded that a BUK missile that downed the plane belonged to Russia’s 53rd anti-aircraft missile brigade in Kursk.

Russia will study today’s verdict before commenting, because “every nuanced matters,” Ivan Nachaev, a deputy Foreign Ministry spokesman, told reporters at a regular briefing in Moscow.

Turkish Tanker Move May Restrict Russian Oil Flows (2:51 pm)

Turkey warned the world’s oil shippers that they would need to prove they’re insured to cross the country’s vital straits. The new rule starts Dec. 1, a few days before the European Union and the UK imposed additional curbs on Russian trade that would make it much harder for tankers with the nation’s oil to get insurance.

Turkish Tanker Move Adds Teeth to EU Sanctions on Russian Oil

Kremlin Adds Loyalist War Reporter to Human Rights Body (1:13 pm)

The Kremlin appointed Alexander Kots, a loyalist war reporter, to its human rights council, removing a number of civil rights activists. Yelena Shishkina, a legislator in Russia-controlled occupied Ukrainian territory, was also added to the list.

“In the new circumstances, different people are better suited to represent civil society,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call.

Ukraine’s DTEK Says About 40% of Consumers Lack of Power (12:58 pm)

Ukraine may face days without power following Russian attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure, Dmytro Sakharuk, a top manager of private producer DTEK Energy, said on national television. Electricity may eventually be available to consumers for only two or three hours a day, he said.

Australian Billionaire Forrest Pledge $500 Million to Ukraine Recovery Fund, Zelenskiy Says (12:10 pm)

Australian billionaire Andrew Forrest pledged to invest $500 million into the emerging $25 billion Ukraine recovery fund, President Zelenskiy said in a video interview at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore. He also thanked BlackRock Inc.’s CEO Larry Fink for helping to structure the recovery fund.

Finland Sends Its Largest Military Package to Ukraine (11:45 am)

Finland’s government decided to donate €55.6 million ($57.6 million) worth of defense materials to Ukraine, its 10th package to date, bringing the Nordic country’s total donations to €160.4 million, according to an emailed statement.

Naftogaz Says Gas Extraction Facility Damaged by Russian Attack (11:40 am)

Massive shelling impacted the gas-producing infrastructure of AT UkrGasVydobuvannya on Thursday, NJSC Naftogaz Ukrainy CEO Oleksiy Chernyshov said, according to the company’s website. Several parts of the infrastructure were destroyed, while others were damaged to varying degrees. UkrGasVydobuvannya is part of state run energy company Naftogaz.

Zelenskiy Softens Stance on Rocket Origin (11:05 am)

Ukraine’s president appeared to soften his insistence that it was only a Russian missile that caused the blast in Poland this week and said a team would investigate after President Joe Biden disputed the claim. Zelenskiy said his military officials had told him that images of the crater at the blast site suggested it couldn’t have been caused solely by the remnants of a Ukrainian anti-air rocket.

He said he “was sure that it was a Russian missile” but also that he was certain Ukraine had launched weapons to defend against a Russian barrage. “I don’t know 100% — I think the world also doesn’t 100% know what happened,” Zelenskiy said in a videolink interview at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum. “We can’t say specifically that this was the air defense of Ukraine.”

Russia Must Leave Territory Including Crimea, Zelenskiy Says (10:20 am)

President Zelenskiy said Russian forces must leave Ukrainian territory — including Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014, as well as the eastern Donbas region — to bring an end to the nine-month war.

“This is not just a state within a state, it’s part of our country and part of our sovereignty,” Zelenskiy told the Bloomberg New Economy Forum. He reinforced his message that he would not negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russian Missiles Hit Infrastructure Targets in Several Regions, Authorities Say (10:15 am)

Russia hit infrastructure targets in several regions on Thursday morning. Strikes on Dnipro damaged an industrial company and several residences, injuring eight people, local authorities said. Strikes on the Zaporizhzhia region destroyed several residences and killed at least four, according to Kyrylo Tymoshenko, the deputy head of Zelenskiy’s office.

An infrastructure facility in the Odesa region was also a hit, Maksym Marchenko, head of the Odesa military administration, said on Telegram. Three people were injured in the Izium discrict of the Kharkiv region where another infrastructure was targeted, local Governor By Syniehubov said on Telegram.

Poland May Allow Ukrainian Observers in Missile Blast Probe (8:30 am)

Polish President Andrzej Duda sees “no obstacles” to Ukrainian observers taking part in an investigation into the causes of the missile blast that killed two people near the border with Ukraine on Tuesday, the head of the National Security Office Jacek Siewiera said.

The decision will ultimately depend on an agreement with other NATO members, Siewiera told RMF FM radio. Polish prosecutors will carry out the probe, he said.

Black Sea Grain Deal to Be Extended for 120 Days, Ukraine Says (8:20 am)

The Ukraine grain-export deal will be prolonged by 120 days, Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Kubrakov said in a post on Twitter. He called the move “another important step in the global fight against the food crisis.” He said separately on Facebook the decision was just made in Istanbul.

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